Brazil, in a deep recession and with high inflation and unemployment, is expected to show a 3.3% fall in GDP this year after a 3.8% drop in 2015. However, the IFO experts predict an improvement to 0.5% growth in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. More positively, various other countries in South America, including Peru and Chile, are continuing to record good economic growth.
In Brazil, the economic and political crisis has hit the travel industry heavily. Outbound travel crashed by 15% in the first eight months of 2016, according to World Travel Monitor®figures. There was a 16% slump in trips to destinations in the Americas, which Brazilians mostly visit on international trips, and a lower decline in intercontinental travel to Europe (-10%) and Asia (-5%). The overall number of foreign holidays plummeted by 20%, with a 23% fall in city trips and a 22% drop in touring holidays but a small 3% rise in sun & beach holidays. The travel cutbacks were also reflected in various other World Travel Monitor® figures. Brazilians went on shorter international trips, reduced their spending and switched from air travel (-25%) to car travel (+10%).
However, the worst could be over. There are hopes of a small turnaround in 2017 with a 3% rise in outbound trips, based on IPK’s Travel Confidence Index, which might reflect an improving economic outlook for the country. “There are signs of an economic recovery in Brazil. There could be a recovery in tourism flows from Brazil next year after this year’s downturn,” commented Juan Alberto Garcia Lopez, senior research analyst with IPK International.
Source: ITB World Travel Trends Report 2016/2017
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